September 30, 2004

Does Smart Beat Simple?

That's the question as the first presidential joint appearance, which actually seemed to be a debate at many moments, comes to its last 20 minutes. Most viewers are starting to lose attention, especially as the topics shift away from Iraq and the war on terror, which dominated the first 45-50 minutes of the debate. Bush has about four simple points: 1. We're making progress 2. it's hard work 3. A good offense is the best defense 4. My opponent is inconsistent Kerry has all the points. However, I can't tell you want his four simple points are. That's not his style. If you're listening closely, he's winning most of the substantive arguments. But only 27% of the population has a college degree. So Kerry's complicated explanations, even boiled down into 90 and 120 second sound-blips, may not get through as well as one hopes.
Posted by msifry at 10:13 PM

About this new blog

So, months after I hoped to get this done, here's my redesigned blog (thanks to Bryan Bell, who did the IraqWarReader too.) The reason for the change ought to be plain--I'm writing much more about domestic issues than Iraq. Truth in labeling. I've still got to shift over the old posts (and there's a ton of comment spam that I want to delete first), and then we'll redirect the old url to point here. And, when I'm not so rushed, I'll explain the photo that adorns this page, which will change with the seasons. But, in the meantime, welcome to micah.sifry.com!
Posted by msifry at 11:33 AM

Pre-Debate Musing

I'm a optimist by nature, so here's a thought for those who expect Kerry to fall on his face in tonight's debate, like my pal Doug Ireland, or who think Bush will do just fine no matter what, like another pal, David Corn. Bush has more to lose in this debate than Kerry. Millions of voters are tuning in for the first time. Unlike Kerry, Bush has a record to defend. And he's scarcely wowing the public with his performance so far. Yes, I know, polls show him leading Kerry in all the foreign policy measures--46-38% in who "would make wise decisions about what to do in Iraq," for example, in the latest Pew survey. And 54-30% in who would better defend the country from future terrorist attacks. But note that Bush's numbers are scarcely overwhelming. If he stumbles tonight, which could happen later in the evening as he tires and/or if moderator Jim Lehrer rouses himself and asks some pointed questions, the overall momentum, which now clearly favors Bush, could shift.
Posted by msifry at 11:27 AM