I’m a optimist by nature, so here’s a thought for those who expect Kerry to fall on his face in tonight’s debate, like my pal Doug Ireland, or who think Bush will do just fine no matter what, like another pal, David Corn.
Bush has more to lose in this debate than Kerry. Millions of voters are tuning in for the first time. Unlike Kerry, Bush has a record to defend. And he’s scarcely wowing the public with his performance so far. Yes, I know, polls show him leading Kerry in all the foreign policy measures–46-38% in who “would make wise decisions about what to do in Iraq,” for example, in the latest Pew survey. And 54-30% in who would better defend the country from future terrorist attacks.
But note that Bush’s numbers are scarcely overwhelming. If he stumbles tonight, which could happen later in the evening as he tires and/or if moderator Jim Lehrer rouses himself and asks some pointed questions, the overall momentum, which now clearly favors Bush, could shift.
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