I guess the game is starting early this cycle. That is, every four years, there is an effort to gin up a third-party presidential candidacy to take advantage of the "pox on both houses" mood that is ever latent in the electorate. Typically, this gathers steam the year prior to the presidential election. Think of the Draft Perot movement (which started in the fall of 1991), the media boomlet for Colin Powell in the summer/fall of 1995, and the buzz over people like Warren Beatty and Donald Trump possibly running in the summer/fall of 1999. (In 2003, I would argue that Howard Dean soaked up most of this free energy.)
I've always that this process was at least one part hype and one part hope. Hype on the part of the chattering class and the need to invent new stories to attract the public's interest and sell eyeballs and newspapers. Hope on the part of those of us who think that the two-party system is dysfunctional and in need of radical surgery.
Now, the Washington Post reports that a new wrinkle to the game, one that evokes some of the "Draft ________" movements of 2003:
A group of political consultants from both sides of the political aisle is taking steps to draft a third-party ticket for president in 2008, guided by a belief that neither the Republican or Democratic parties are adequately addressing the problems of average Americans.
"We believe that, while the leaders of both major parties are well-intentioned people, they are trapped in a flawed system -- and that the two major parties are today simply neither relevant to the issues and challenges of the 21st century nor effective in addressing them," reads a four-page summary document for "Unity '08," a copy of which was obtained in advance by The Fix (and which is now online).
"Unity '08" plans to formally launch its Web presence today, but several of its principals have already been courting potential donors as well as checking with the Federal Election Commission about the requirements of running a third-party slate for president in 2008. According to the Unity '08 Web site, the group "is organized under IRS rules as a section 527 political organization" while it awaits FEC guidance.
Among the major players behind the effort are: Doug Bailey, a former Republican consultant and the founder of The Hotline; Hamilton Jordan and Jerry Rafshoon -- veterans of the Carter administration; Nicco Mele, webmaster for Howard Dean's 2004 presidential campaign; and Roger Craver, a Democratic direct-mail consultant intimately involved in John B. Anderson's independent presidential bid in 1980 (and a co-founder of The Hotline with Bailey).
Although details of the group's aims are somewhat spotty, Unity '08 hopes to harness the power of the Internet to build a community of activists who will be tasked with choosing a "unity" ticket (made up of one Democrat and one Republican) during an online "convention" in June 2008. "That will be after the two parties are likely to have decided in their primaries who their nominees will be, so the Unity '08 convention delegates would then be able to consider who is best to run against them," according to a four-page question and answer document being circulated by the group.
The document summarizing the group's plan outlines a series of "crucial issues" that it hopes its presence will force the national parties to address. These include "global terrorism, our national debt, our dependence on foreign oil, the emergence of India and China as strategic competitors and/or allies, nuclear proliferation, global climate change, the corruption of Washington's lobbying system" and many, many more.
Hmmmm. The Post missed some interesting clues as to what this is about. Take Unity '08's "Founders Council" (in formation). Hamilton Jordan's name jumps out at me, as he was co-director of Ross Perot's ill-fated 1992 campaign, along with Republican Ed Rollins. The Carter connection matters less than the Perot connection, methinks. Maine's Angus King is also on the list, which makes sense as he is one of the few independents to get elected governor in the last two decades. Jim Jonas, Unity '08's CEO, worked on Lamar Alexander's early presidential organizing in 1993-95. (I'm actually surprised to not see Joe Trippi's name on the list--given that he's been talking about this kind of independent, internet-driven candidacy ever since 2004--but maybe my friend Nicco Mele is his proxy?)
So these guys have some heft. But I hardly think their preferred plan--to draft a "unity ticket" of one D and one R--is going to fire up voters. (Their ticket will look like a horse designed by a committee, only with two heads.) Nor does it seem very likely that such a ticket could be cobbled together. (Far better to go outside the two parties for new leadership, if you ask me.) Of course, if you could get 20 million people to at least temporarily threaten to withhold their support from the major parties during the course of the 2008 election cycle, you could very well leverage some significant shifts--at least rhetorically--in those parties' directions. Which wouldn't be a bad thing.
But, as I said in my earlier post about Thomas Friedman's musings on the same topic, this feels too soon to be ripe. The 2006 election has to play out first. If Democrats retake part or all of Congress, they may be able to deflect the third-party mood of 2007 by beginning to restore effective government to Washington. Or, they could fuel that mood if all they produce, with Republican connivance, is more grid-lock. And if they fail to dislodge the Republicans in 2006, then there will be a wholesale reshuffling of the Democratic leadership deck, and past that moment it is just too hard to see what comes next.
So Unity '08 is mostly a media play, at least for now.
Posted by msifry at May 30, 2006 10:16 PM