Any idea when the election will be over?
I'm not kidding about that, by the way. I think we're heading for a national nervous breakdown/constitutional crisis, starting the night of November 2nd. Consider it all part of the Latinamericanization of our politics.
Here's the problem. There's little consensus about two really important issues at the moment:
1. No one agrees about the exact shape of the race. The polls aren't helpful at all. Unlike in 1996, when it was clear Clinton was going to beat Dole, here we have a great deal of uncertainty about who is leading whom and by how much. So, there are a whole array of outcomes that a significant number of people will view, immediately, as suspect.
2. No one agrees about the credibility of the vote-counting system. Lots of stories are bubbling up already describing names being left off of ballots, purge lists that target African-Americans, Democratic registrations being torn up, and so on. If we have a couple of states with very close results generating calls for recounts, arguments over provisional ballots, etc. I expect the fight will very quickly get ugly. Unlike in 2000, when Bush, Baker & crew fought to win and Gore fought to avoid instability and negative editorials in the New York Times, this time there will be no holding back.
If, by some blessing, there are no closely contested states left unsettled Election Night, perhaps the worst will not come to pass. Sure, the loonies on both sides will still cry foul if their guy loses. But without formal recount proceedings and legal wrangling, we won't see the worst. I'm just not very optimistic about that.
Posted by msifry at October 22, 2004 08:55 PM